Winning the NBA’s Most Improved Player award must be a lot like winning a silver medal at the Olympics. You can almost taste the condescension. But the kind of player that usually wins this award is exactly the kind of player handicappers love: undervalued.

Last year’s winner, Monta Ellis, was a key contributor to Golden State’s 44-37-1 record against the spread (plus 6-4-1 ATS in the playoffs). Statheads already knew about Ellis thanks to his promising 11.13 Player Efficiency Rating as a rookie. Boston’s Glen “Big Baby” Davis (11.35 PER) could follow the same path as Ellis, from second-round draft pick to emerging star.

It isn’t always sophomores who win the MIP. The very likely winner this time will be Orlando’s Hedo Turkoglu. The eight-year veteran stayed relatively healthy in 2007-08, and with Rashard Lewis put next to him on the Magic frontline, Turkoglu enjoyed a career season with 19.5 points per game and a 17.81 PER. Orlando supporters profited at 50-29-3.