This could be something of a disappointing Olympics for the United States. The over/under on medals for Team USA is 92.5 – two fewer than the host nation China.

There are two ways to go about handicapping this bad boy. You could look at every single sport at the Summer Games, everything from archery to wrestling. Or you could look at the medal counts for Team USA in Olympics past and spot the trend. Both methods have their limitations, but at least the second one won’t take you from now until the Olympics are over to figure out.

The smallest medal total for the U.S. over the past 40 years (1980 aside) has been 94, at Munich, Montreal, Seoul and Sydney. So the over is a lock, right? Wrong. China’s medal count has climbed steadily, and they’ll be winning a lot more this year as the host nation. It’ll be at the expense of Team USA.