At this time last year, the rise of “prediction markets” like Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets heralded a new age for betting on politics. And Hillary Clinton was the prohibitive favorite to become the next President of the United States of America.

Whoops. It turns out the wisdom of crowds has its limits. But it’s still useful for bettors to know that shares in Barack Obama and the Democrats are trading around the $60 mark, which translates to a 60-percent “chance” that Obama will be the next president. If the prediction market is to be trusted, then Obama is too expensive at –270 on the futures market, and John McCain has value at +180. The big question of the day is whom Obama will choose as his running mate. Jim Webb is the favorite at Intrade, but shares are trading at just $20 with a wide field of potential VP candidates. Tim Pawlenty is the Republican fave at $19.20.